Coinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q1 2026

insights.glassnodePublished on 2026-01-27Last updated on 2026-01-27

Abstract

Coinbase and Glassnode's Q1 2026 "Charting Crypto" report indicates that digital asset markets entered the year with cleaner structure, lower leverage, and more disciplined risk management following a significant deleveraging event in October 2025. Bitcoin continues to structurally outperform, with its dominance holding near 59%. Market sentiment remains cautious, with Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stabilizing in the "Anxiety" phase, suggesting a consolidation period. A key shift occurred in derivatives, where BTC options open interest has now surpassed perpetual futures, reflecting a move towards protective, defined-risk strategies rather than a full exit from risk. Ethereum is showing late-cycle characteristics, though traditional cycle-based signals are losing predictive power due to structural changes in its ecosystem. Institutional sentiment remains selectively constructive, with a preference for large-cap assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The overall market behavior points to greater structural stability compared to previous cycles.

Digital asset markets entered 2026 with cleaner structure, lower leverage, and more disciplined risk expression following last year’s deleveraging. Risk is now being repriced rather than abandoned, with derivatives positioning shifted toward protection. Sentiment remains cautious, but market behavior points to greater structural resilience than in prior cycle transitions.

Produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, our latest Charting Crypto report draws on proprietary market and on-chain data and a quarterly institutional survey to bring institutional investors a trusted perspective on the critical trends this quarter.

Read the full Charting Crypto Q1 2026 PDF report.

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Bitcoin continues to outperform broader crypto markets structurally as BTC dominance held near 59% even as mid- and small-cap assets failed to sustain previous gains
BTC options OI surpassed perpetual futures after October’s deleveraging event, with positioning increasingly concentrated in protective structures as market participants hedged against further downside
Investor positioning points to distribution as BTC supply active within three months increased to 37% in Q4 of last year, while long-dormant supply declined modestly
ETH may be approaching a late-cycle phase; however, while cycle maturity is becoming evident, its influence on forward returns appears to be diminishing
Institutional sentiment remains selectively constructive: survey responses have shown preference for large-cap exposure amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Insights from Q1 2026

1. BTC sentiment remains subdued

Market sentiment for Bitcoin has remained restrained entering Q1 2026. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shifted from Belief to Anxiety during October’s liquidation event and has since stabilized at lower levels. This reflects lingering caution among participants, even as macro conditions and price structure have stabilised.

Historical NUPL regimes show that prolonged periods of Anxiety tend to coincide with consolidation phases, where investors remain engaged but hesitant to re-embrace directional risk. From a structural perspective, this leaves room for sentiment to improve should volatility compress or macro conditions remain stable.

2. Deleveraging reshaped derivatives positioning

Last year's October liquidation event materially reduced systemic leverage across crypto markets. Positions in perpetual futures were unwound at scale, driving the systematic leverage ratio down to approximately 3% of total crypto market capitalization when excluding stablecoins. This marked a clear departure from the leverage-heavy conditions that defined much of 2024 and early 2025.

Rather than exiting risk entirely, market participants reallocated exposure into options markets. BTC options open interest now exceeds that of perpetual futures, with positioning skewed toward defensive structures. This shift reflects a preference for defined-risk exposure. From a market structure standpoint, this transition supports a more resilient trading environment, even if near-term sentiment remains guarded.

3. Ethereum cycle signals carry less forward weight

Ethereum appears to be approaching the later stages of its current price performance cycle, which began from the June 2022 lows. While ETH has delivered meaningful gains over this period, recent indicators suggest that cycle-based signals are losing explanatory power.

Structural changes to Ethereum’s ecosystem, including fee compression on L2s and evolving network economics, have diluted the predictive power of traditional cycle frameworks. As a result, while late-cycle characteristics are becoming more apparent in ETH, cycle timing is increasingly insufficient as a standalone guide for future performance. Market outcomes are now more likely to be driven by broader liquidity conditions and relative positioning than by cycle duration alone.

For the full Q1 2026 edition of Charting Crypto, including institutional survey results and the joint market analysis from the Coinbase and Glassnode analyst teams, download the report here.

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For on-chain metrics, dashboards, and alerts, visit Glassnode Studio

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. The analysis represents a limited case study with significant constraints and should not be interpreted as investment advice or definitive trading signals. Past performance patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough due diligence and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.

Losing $19,000 Per Mined Coin, Bitcoin Mining Companies Collectively Flee to AI

Facing unsustainable losses of approximately $19,000 per Bitcoin mined due to rising costs and stagnant BTC prices, major public mining firms are pivoting aggressively toward AI infrastructure. According to a CoinShares report, these companies have signed over $70 billion in AI and high-performance computing contracts, with AI revenue projected to reach 70% of total income by 2026. To fund this transition, miners are taking on significant debt and selling Bitcoin holdings—over 15,000 BTC have been liquidated collectively. This shift is reducing Bitcoin’s network security, as hash rate has dropped from 1,160 EH/s to 920 EH/s. Market valuations now favor AI-exposed miners at 12.3x forward revenue, compared to 5.9x for pure-play miners. The industry’s future depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price: a recovery to $100,000 could slow the AI transition, while prices below $70,000 may accelerate the move away from mining.

marsbit1h ago

Losing $19,000 Per Mined Coin, Bitcoin Mining Companies Collectively Flee to AI

marsbit1h ago

Is Bitcoin’s price at risk of $58K after U.S 10-year yields near 5%, oil-driven inflation

Bitcoin's recent rally to $76,000 has reversed amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is consolidating near a bullish flag pattern, with a potential breakout toward 5%—a level last seen in 2023. Higher yields could trigger capital outflows from risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially driving its price down to the $58,632–$55,302 demand zone. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $296 million over the past week, reversing previous inflows, indicating a risk-off sentiment among institutional investors. Surging oil prices, with Brent crude near $106, are stoking inflation concerns and reducing the likelihood of near-term monetary easing. These factors suggest Bitcoin remains sensitive to broader macro liquidity conditions rather than acting as a reliable inflation hedge in the short term.

ambcrypto1h ago

Is Bitcoin’s price at risk of $58K after U.S 10-year yields near 5%, oil-driven inflation

ambcrypto1h ago

Must-Watch Next Week｜Polymarket to Expand Fee-Based Market Scope; Based and edgeX to Conduct TGE Successively (3.30-4.5)

This week's key events (March 30 - April 5) focus on crypto developments, traditional finance, and policy updates. In crypto, Polymarket expands its fee structure starting March 30, adding Finance, Politics, Economics, and other categories to its taker fee model. Both Based and edgeX will conduct their Token Generation Events (TGE) on March 30 and 31, respectively. Additionally, FTX's liquidation trust plans a new distribution of approximately $2.2 billion in creditor repayments on March 31. Several exchanges, including Binance and Upbit, will delist multiple tokens like UTK, DENT, and NOM around this period. In traditional markets, the G7 meeting on March 30 will discuss strategic petroleum reserves. Key U.S. economic data includes initial jobless claims on April 2 and March non-farm payrolls on April 3. Policy-wise, U.S. lawmakers are expected to release a draft stablecoin bill next week, with industry players preparing counter-proposals. Additionally, X (formerly Twitter) plans a major update with its AI model Grok taking over the platform’s recommendation algorithm.

marsbit2h ago

Must-Watch Next Week｜Polymarket to Expand Fee-Based Market Scope; Based and edgeX to Conduct TGE Successively (3.30-4.5)

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Analyzing if AAVE could target $92 after breaking KEY support

AAVE breached the $100 support level amid a broader market decline, falling to a three-week low of $96 and trading at $97 at press time, down 7.7% daily. The market cap dropped by over $200 million. The altcoin fell below its short-term moving averages, reflecting strong bearish pressure. Market participants turned bearish, with the Bulls vs. Bears indicator turning negative after over a month of positivity. Exchange data showed a net inflow of tokens, indicating selling dominance, and the Exchange Supply Ratio hit a monthly high of 0.137. The RSI dropped to 34, nearing oversold conditions, suggesting continued seller control. If bearish momentum persists, AAVE could decline toward $92. A rebound would require reclaiming $100 and key moving averages at $107 and $110; otherwise, the downtrend may continue.

ambcrypto2h ago

Analyzing if AAVE could target $92 after breaking KEY support

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Will ONDO’s mid-range retest give bulls a chance to target $0.295?

ONDO has recently seen bullish developments, including a partnership with Franklin Templeton, though this news did not immediately impact its price. The token's long-term trend remains bearish, but it has been consolidating within a tight range ($0.237-$0.295) over the past six weeks—a potential preparation for a future bull run. Current data from Coinalyze shows rising Open Interest and spot demand, alongside a positive funding rate, suggesting speculative interest. However, the CMF indicates that buying pressure is inconsistent, and rallies toward $0.295 have been met with profit-taking. Traders are advised to consider selling near range highs and buying on a retest of the $0.23-$0.24 support zone.

ambcrypto3h ago

Will ONDO’s mid-range retest give bulls a chance to target $0.295?

ambcrypto3h ago

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